Advanced Load Forecasting to Manage Capacity Challenges

Transmission & Distribution asset infrastructure introduces a number of specialized challenges for utilities to continually manage as part of their asset management (AM) programs. Traditionally, to manage these challenges, utilities have spent considerable time & effort to develop robust asset management systems (AMS) and underlying processes to manage individual assets and asset classes, thereby establishing “asset awareness”. Key asset awareness outputs include forward-looking indicators (e.g. health index, failure curves, risk costs) that predict how assets are degrading, and which assets should be replaced first, often based upon failure risk. In parallel to asset awareness, there has been a need to establish an awareness of the broader T&D system, to identify how external factors can impact the T&D system and the performance of assets – particularly for overhead infrastructure that is constantly exposed to the elements. Key external factors that can impact the performance of assets include extreme temperatures, winds, rainfall & flooding, snow & ice conditions as well as adjacent contacts with vegetation, animals, vehicles and humans. These emerging and external factors can ultimately accelerate the aging and degradation of the assets’ themselves, resulting in premature failures. Other emerging and external factors, including capacity challenges due to the introduction of new renewable technologies, electric vehicles and charging networks, as well as physical and cybersecurity challenges continue to grow in volume, resulting in the need to rethink asset management efforts, and the “awareness” that these efforts are providing to utilities. In order to better respond to these challenges, utilities must expand their awareness level, moving “beyond the asset” to examine the grid holistically, such that these emerging & external factors can be sufficiently predicted and addressed as part of capital & maintenance plans. This panel session will share real-world applications, where utilities have introduced new processes, tools and systems to expand their awareness to the grid and beyond, such that the risks of external and emerging factors can be sufficiently predicted and managed as part of the proposed investment plans.